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Written By: Hafidzi Razali - CEO Strategic Counsel | Date Published: 31/12/2024
Original Article Published on Astro Awani International | Read Original
A DECADE after Malaysia successfully launched the ASEAN Economic Community, it is now preparing to take on the responsibility of chairing the ASEAN Summit 2025, starting on January 1, 2025.
Malaysia’s Prime Minister, Anwar Ibrahim, has emerged as a globetrotting statesman and a prominent advocate for international diplomacy since assuming office in November 2022. In a short span, Anwar has addressed humanitarian issues in Gaza, engaged with the BRICS platform, and committed to fostering open trade and investment ties with both the U.S. and China.
As ASEAN Chair, heightened expectations naturally accompany this responsibility, with Prime Minister Anwar seeking to reinforce ASEAN’s centrality amidst competing geopolitical tensions. The one-year rotational nature of the Chairmanship begs the question if there is sufficient time to yield actionable results. But it is even more so important than ever for ASEAN to benefit from a consensus-building political leadership, which Prime Minister Anwar is notably known for with his balancing of Malaysia’s unity government – one that bridges the ideological gap from Malay nationalists to multicultural coalition.
Key Regional Priorities
Maritime disputes in the South China Sea remain a contentious issue with China, while the ongoing U.S.-China trade war may escalate further, especially with the return of President Trump. This dynamic could polarize ASEAN member states, exacerbated by industries adopting a “China +1” strategy to diversify supply chains.
Malaysia’s approach to addressing these long-standing issues could be pivotal, particularly in the context of China’s assertiveness in the long-dragged Code of Conduct negotiations with ASEAN, which also impacts Malaysia. The limited progress thus far underscores the U.S.’s continued role as a strategic counterweight for nations such as the Philippines and Vietnam.
ASEAN’s principle of non-interference, too, faces renewed challenges with the ongoing crisis in Myanmar. The United Nations Human Rights Council estimated that between April 2023 and June 2024, the casualties of the junta’s rule have reached 2,400 deaths. Over 120,000 people, predominantly minorities, have been displaced to neighboring countries, including Malaysia. Engaging the military regime, nevertheless, poses a double-edged risk, as political resolutions could inadvertently legitimize the junta’s rule and narrative, especially without National Unity Government representation.
While Prime Minister Anwar has advocated for “carving out” Myanmar from ASEAN’s progress, the recent appointment of former Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra as “unofficial advisor to the ASEAN Chair” signals Malaysia’s commitment to addressing the crisis. Thaksin, who remains politically influential in Thailand’s northern regions, is expected to initiate and engage in ASEAN mediation efforts with Myanmar’s military leaders to adhere to the Five-Point Consensus.
Growth and Development
In parallel, ASEAN must continue its developmental agenda. Described by Prime Minister Anwar as ASEAN’s “Second Renaissance,” Malaysia’s chosen themes of “Inclusivity and Sustainability” therefore aim to achieve a three-pronged strategy to expand trade and investment linkages, foster digital transformation, and strengthen member countries’ economic fundamentals. The posturing of the policy agenda, in fact, is an extension of the values espoused by Prime Minister Anwar’s “Malaysia MADANI” concept which envisions a wholesome societal progress that “uplifts the floor and raises the ceiling.”
Drawing lessons from disruptions such as the COVID-19 pandemic, Malaysia’s Chairmanship offers a chance to address ASEAN’s vulnerabilities, adapt to shifting supply chain demands, and position ASEAN as a vital trading partner. In that context, Malaysia aims to conclude negotiations towards concluding the ASEAN Community Vision 2045 and the ASEAN Digital Economy Framework Agreement (DEFA), aimed at improving the livelihoods of ASEAN’s 660 million population. This effort is timely to address the stark disparity in per capita incomes, ranging from Singapore’s USD 84,700 to Myanmar’s USD 1,100.
In the past decade alone, the Southeast Asian economy has recorded average growth of over 5%. This is almost double the performance of the global average. But a deeper analysis would expose the glaring gap of intra-ASEAN total trade, which is only 22% of the total trade as of 2023. Prime Minister Anwar has aptly noted that a closer economic integration is necessary for ASEAN’s young and dynamic population to reap the benefits of the digital economy and expanded market access.
Delicate Balancing Act
While the ASEAN leadership line-up of 2025 is nothing short of wisdom and experience, it is largely representative of leaders with a refreshed mandate. Indonesia’s Prabowo Subianto, a former military general himself, is noted for his appetite for geopolitics compared to his predecessor. Prime Ministers Lawrence Wong and Paetongtarn Shinawatra would also be keen to leave their mark, having assumed the roles as the “next generation” of Southeast Asian leadership. The potential inclusion of Timor-Leste as the latest full member of ASEAN is also timely to recalibrate closer to centrality, given the increasing jostling of power play between U.S.-China and its abundance of natural resources.
It is a delicate balancing act for the ASEAN Chair in 2025, more so with Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand, and Vietnam officially becoming partners of BRICS. Although it remains premature to anticipate the counterbalancing benefits of the partnership, the Chairmanship would provide an opportunity for Malaysia to ascertain if BRICS could be a reliable multilateral alternative to expedite ASEAN’s developmental needs – especially as it readies its infrastructural and human capital against growing demand.
Beyond economic metrics, embodying “The ASEAN Way” would also require collective action on transboundary issues such as haze pollution, cybercrime, human trafficking, and the rising number of Rohingya refugees on the shores of Thailand, Malaysia, and Indonesia. These issues are only symptomatic of the limitations of the mechanisms in place.
As ASEAN Chair, there is high hope for Malaysia to lay out the foundation towards implementable action plans for this newer cohort of ASEAN leadership.
Fresh from celebrating his two-year anniversary as prime minister – longer than three of his predecessors – Prime Minister Anwar is notably determined that the next twelve months would mark a legacy for Malaysia’s contribution in multilateral diplomacy.
Hafidzi Razali is a Founder and CEO of Strategic Counsel (stcounsel.com), a public affairs, policy advisory, and strategic communications firm headquartered in Kuala Lumpur. Hafidzi was formerly a Fulbright scholar and Oxford Policy Fellow.
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